Whom to trust? (Part 1)

"Today you can't trust anyone" - started my pessimistic friend. Let's call him PF. PF went a little philosophical, "Forget anyone else. Can you trust your own self? Your emotions, your belief, your desires, your intellect, your decisions, your intuition. All of them can put you down. All of them can cheat you!"

PF continued "My intellect said I should become a Banker. Seems like I was wrong. My emotions told me firmly: if at all I marry, I should marry this girl. What a terrible mistake! My childhood desire was to buy the biggest and fastest buses and trucks possible, which I feel are totally absurd today.

I once believed in Gods in temples, which seems like total immaturity today. My human design system asked me to be nice and caring towards people - but today, I feel honesty matters than anything else. My intuition told me everything can't be so fickle and fake - but you know what.. Let me not fall into the trap again! Let me not trust it again!"

For a moment I was shaken. PF isn't totally wrong - He has a point. For heaven's sake, you never know whether you live in a real world or a Matrix. So, is everything fake? You can't trust anyone including your own self?

My answers to PF in Part 2 of the post next week.

@Regular:

Was just reading the book Tuesdays with Morrie

IPL: Economics and Entertainment

From being the "Manoranjan Ka Baap" last summer to going live as "Ek Desh Ek Junoon" yesterday, Indian Premier League (IPL) saw big drama this year - the clash between Government & IPL organizing committee resulting in bumper prize for South Africa. Yes, we are going to greatly miss the usual shouts, roars, bellows and  the boos which we were used to in the last season. Nevertheless, let's hope the healthy clashes on the ground between the players would give us solid entertainment.

Just a minor personal digression: The first clash between Chennai & Mumbai teams was a good fun. Remember, IPL is no fun unless you support a team. I have been strongly supporting Chennai from the beginning. But this year, things have a changed a bit - Mumbai, a stranger city till last year, has become an integral part of my life - the city is like a wife to any Mumbai-kar (because you will have all reasons to love and hate it simultaneously). So, when there is a clash between your mother and wife, which side will you take? I think many men just try to escape; few 'fairness' fugitives, who try to be impartial and instill justice, just gain the hate of both; the third smart group acts as if he's supporting mom in public and privately confesses (or lies) to wife that he just acted up. Coming back to the point: I can't disown my motherly team after the arrival of a new lovely team. So, the pecking order is still Chennai and then Mumbai.

Last year, I being relatively free, managed to watch most of the matches. My father looking at people's craze for IPL, commented "If the entire country is watching cricket like this.. if everyone is sitting in front of the TV instead of work or study, what would happen?  God save our economy!" Yeah, he is a mathematician, not an economist. Nonetheless, a valid concern. To paraphrase, the key is question: Apart from entertainment, will IPL improve / hinder the overall economic activity?

Of course, it's a clean case for improved economic activity in South Africa. So, let's try to focus on the economic implications for India. For simplicity sake, let's assume higher economic activity means additional "end user" consumption.

Let's categorize the universe of population into 3:

1. Category X - Non-spectators: People like my Dad, who doesn't watch IPL at all. It doesn't change their world in any way - Let's assume their consumption is unaltered.
2. Category Y - Jobless Spectators: They watch the match at the cost of other "economically" non-value added activities (e.g. instead of IPL, watching Roadies in MTV, chatting with a friend, fighting with spouse etc) - Ok, I understand your concern - "How can you say that I don't add any value by watching Roadies? I am exposed to Ads, which in turn could induce consumption." Yes, it would, but  similar things happen with IPL as well. So, there could be change in consumption, but very less scope for "additional" consumption
3. Category Z - Obsessive Spectators: These people watch matches at the cost of other value added activities. E.g. You decide not to go out for dinner / shopping, you close down your shop earlier than usual, lower efficiency in job due to lack of attention to customer / software coding etc.

So, for category Z: If the additional consumption resulting from watching IPL outweighs the reduction in economical activity, we have the case for positive impact on economy from IPL. I read IPL II will rack at least  Rs. 800 Cr., with more than half of it coming from TV telecast. Last year's avg. TRPs (TV rating points) have been in the range of 2-3. Let's be conservative and assume TRP to be 2 and 50%-50% split between category Y and Z. This implies 1% of targeted population have been actively watching the match. If the major targeted audience of IPL is little less than 20% of India's population (200 million), TRP of 1 (1% of 200 mn) implies 2 million people.

• Estimation of additional consumption: Approx. Rs. 1,350 Cr:
  • Direct Rs. 300 Cr. from merchandise, players' salary, job opportunities for IPL / franchises etc
  • People traveling to South Africa from India: 50 matches with 20,000 audience per match => 1 million audience. Assume 1% of this audience is traveling from India =>10,000 people. Additionally, assume another 250 Indian players (30 players per team) and 250 people from IPL organizing team. Overall 10,500 people. Assume 50% use Indian carriers.  Assuming an expense of 50,000 per person, it would be additional Rs. 26 Cr (Seems not much!)
  • A marketing spend of Rs. 300 Cr. - Let's assume marketing people don't throw away money without getting value for every buck that they spend. So, the present value of the returns from the marketing spend has to be at least Rs. 300 Cr. Assuming average 15% profit margin, this would translate as additional Rs. 2,000 Cr. in companies' top line. Again with 50-50% split between Y & Z - 1,000 Cr is just shift in consumption while Rs. 1,000 Cr. is additional consumption
• Estimation of Z's reduction in job efficiency: Rs. 360 Cr
  • With India's per capita income of Rs.52,500 (US$ 1,050) - with 240 working days in a year, this would translate as Rs. 220/- per day per person. Yeah, probably the per capita of the target audience might be higher than the overall average, but again it could be compensated to some extent by people who don't earn (e.g. students and kids) - So, let's assume it to be just double - Rs. 450/- Let's assume a 10% reduction in efficiency for 40 days for these 2 million people => Rs 360 Cr

So, even if you think the so-many-assumptions in the above calculations are to be changed, the gap is way too much that it makes me believe that IPL brings in more economical activity to the country than otherwise.

Forget economics! Even if IPL doesn't bring in any additionally economic activity, the entertainment that it brings in,  is worth having IPL for! Simple nah! ;)

@Regular

With ongoing battle between movie producers and theatre owners, Mumbai is deprived of good movies. So, just resorting to IPL and books - One hundred years of solitude and The art of war.

The First and the Last

It was a small shop near my home - The repair beds, bags, sofas etc. The first ever time I visited - to get my shoulder bag fixed. With my broken Hindi, I tried explaining the problem to the owner, a fairly old man. I know - My Hindi would have made him ask this question - "Are you from Madras?"  For a moment, I thought these North Indians think anyone down south as Madrasi. But our man was different - He followed with the question "Kerala or Tamil Nadu?" After I replied "Tamil Nadu", his mouth widened with a big smile, beaming a mix of black, red and yellow lights from his partly-available-pan-strained teeth. He started singing a popular old Tamil song "Ponal Pogattum Poda.. Intha boomi-yil nilaiyaai vaazhthavar yaarada.. " (let bygones be bygones as nobody in this world is mortal..)

For a moment, I was stupefied. To say the least, his Tamil was better than my Hindi. He then elaborated how he learned this song: 'I don't Tamil, but when I was in my school in Gujarat, there was a singing competition. While everyone chose to sing in the languages known to them, I chose Tamil'. He went on for a couple of minutes about the competition and the song. As I was tempted to ask the question on his interest in Tamil, our man pre-empted with the answer: 'Her name was Paarvathy - She was a Tamilian - She is a very good lady.. very intelligent girl'  He completed by winking, 'She taught me not just to sing, but so many other things in life.'  His face and the corresponding expression changed quite a bit when he talked her - a mix of happiness, longing & some nostalgic feeling, a bit emotional - Can't exactly describe how the man was different explaining about this First Love.

Yes, THE first love is quite unforgettable and nostalgic for many people. In fact, it's not just love - the first day at school (yes, I know - most of you would have cried and revolted to go to such a place), your first day in your dream college, the first job & the first month salary, the first ever visit to a city / country abroad, the first kiss, making love for the first time, your first baby and the first ever time you hold the baby in your hands, first ever time your kid beats you in a game or sports. The list goes on.. the list of "first"s you cherish (and regret in some instances) can be never ending. The first is always special, as you can have only ONE first.

Same logic to the Last. The last day in college, last day at work, the last conversation before the death of a loved one, the last day of leaving your homeland (as a refugee to some other country), the last few days of a dying person etc. [The last can be an exception to kids. When moms ask their kids to stop the TV / games and study - Kids invariably say "Mommy, one last game pleasssssse.." - The Gods of the Universe know that it would never be "ONE" last]

People distinctly remember the First and Last. Their commitment, awareness and level of involvement would be at their best. How would our experiences be, if we treat all of our activities, work, play and conversations etc to be The First or The last?

@Regular

Summer has begun and we completely, fully, wholly, entirely, and totally experienced it when we planned for a trek at Kajrat, 100 KM from Mumbai. The scorching sun spoiled the otherwise good trip.

The book "The circle of Reasons" was abandoned after reading the first quarter - Quality writing, but was was too boring to my taste.  Currently reading books with interesting and esoteric titles such as "Life after Life - Actual case studies that reveal there is life after death" written by a doctor who studied 150 people with near death experiences, "Conversations with God - An uncommon dialogue  - Book 3". Yes, I am skeptical of both the books and their concepts, nevertheless exploring.. :)

Confront Congestion

India's 300 million city dwellers add up to one-tenth of the world's urban population. Mumbai could soon cross Tokyo as the most populated city globally. Population in Delhi has grown by nearly 10x from 1950. The graph below shows how the population (in Million) has grown in some Indian Metros:

So, it's higher economical activities / opportunities VIS-à-VIS higher cost of living, higher pollution, ruthless traffic etc..

Ok, the post is not to debate on whether this growth is good or bad. Rather to look into how well prepared are we to manage this. Especially, Traffic Congestion.

Yes, it's a no brainer that we are not prepared fully.. just to give you a sample:

In the last ten years, road length increased by 20% and cars by 132% in Urban India.

Does it bring you bad memories of being stuck in traffic and cursing everyone left, right and center (the political parties / Govt); the front, back, sides (the vehicles & fellow drivers); the top, middle and bottom (the people - friends, family & work)?

On a serious note, traffic congestion is a dead weight loss to the society as it affects people emotionally (losing patience, getting irritable, not spending time with family etc), financially (losing businesses, delays), environmentally (more fuel consumption) etc. Again a couple of samples:

• Delhi NCR area - 420 million man-hours are lost every month due to traffic congestion
• Congestion costs Bengalurians $1.8 billion a year in fuel and vehicle maintenance alone

Oops! 420 mn hours of torture monthly for people! Imagine how many Dads would have shouted at their kids, husbands at their wife, bosses at their poor employees! All thanks to the congestion! (And Salman Khan won't give you prize in Dus Ka Dum to guess the % of people who attribute "coming late" to "traffic jam" - Yes, by far, it would be the highest!)

Fair enough, one of the most irritating problems, the urban India faces! But what about the solution? Had it been so simple, it would have been solved by now, right? Or are we missing something?

For a common man, it's all about solving his own problem: Skip the signal, travel in opposite / wrong lanes, change lane abruptly, take a U, R, L, Z where it's not supposed to be taken etc.

For bureaucrats / government bodies, it's all about Obligation (if not Omission). Optimization is a distant dream.

Researchers all over the world, be it in mathematics, physics or economics - have tried / been trying to develop models. (Take this sample: a study by IISc suggests a simple solution of synchronizing Bengaluru traffic signals in a particular way to reduce waiting time) Yes, millions of solutions proposed. Implementation / Coordination is the missing link.

You ask an MBA person. He would say - at a high level, it's just common sense to solve this problem - do one or a combination of the following: increase the supply (roads, infrastructure), reduce the demand (personal vehicles), improve the efficiency of meeting the demand with the supply. He / she is good at solid structuring, result-orientation, efficiency etc. All these are good, but what about practicality?

So, to confront the ever growing monster called traffic congestion, you can't fight individually - you need an army. He is a terrible villain - you need Amar, Akbar and Anthony to join hands to beat him! Yes, what is needed is the coordinated effort from different streams such as Research institutes, Government bodies, Private organizations (or Management entities) and most importantly the People.

*Data Source (In addition to Wikipedia, Google): Sify, The Hindu, Wired

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@Regular:

You get a long weekend, this is what would happen. A mix of awesome movies (To Kill A mocking Bird and The International) with bad ones ( 8x10 Tasveer - Bollywood / Akshay Kumar Movie - A very poor execution of an interesting idea; Ayan - Tamil movie starring Surya / Tammanna - Surya, please don't go down the drain as some thala(pathi)s are doing - we expect good movies from you!). Also catching up with The Maximum City and The circle of Reasons.